State of the market
As previously mentioned, sentiment around UK pubs is poor. Firstly, they had to see off the depths of pandemic closures. Many large pub companies came away from that experience with very stretched balance sheets. Subsequently, pubs have had to face rising cost of goods sold, affected by food inflation, electricity cost hikes, additional taxes on alcohol and this year they will face a meaningful increase in the UK National Insurance rate. These factors have combined with generally lower rates of alcohol consumption in the Western World. The number of pubs in the UK has dwindled from more than 60,000 in the early 2000s to approximately 40,000 today. Much like the Ram Brewery, part of this can be ascribed to higher and better use of the properties. The UK still maintains a higher number of pubs per capita than Australia, but pales in comparison to our Irish friends, who frequent the same number of pubs as Australians, despite having approximately one fifth of the population.
Despite the challenging operating environment, Young’s has performed admirably. Thankfully, there are many listed UK pub companies, with long histories of financial information allowing us to form a clear picture of the industry over time. Listed players have meaningfully outperformed the broader pub market over time, as independent operators have struggled to compete against the scale and professionalism of larger operators. Amongst listed peers, Young’s has maintained either the best or second-best performance depending on the time of measurement. The only other company that compares is JD Weatherspoon, who not surprisingly has a controlling and aligned major shareholder who cares deeply about the company. JD Weatherspoon was a previous successful investment for the portfolio. Today Young’s is however best placed, with London outperforming the rest of the UK and its more upscale pubs better placed for today’s market environment than Weatherspoon’s highly affordable options.1
In this tough environment, Young’s grew like-for-like sales by 5.7% in the previous financial year and has grown that figure by more than inflation for over a decade. This has been aided by premiumisation, with sales of cocktails far outpacing the growth in sales of beer and wine. Young’s business model is also somewhat decentralised, with a lot of the key decisions about pubs handled at the pub manager level and support provided from central management. Supporting this, 85% of Young’s general managers have been internally developed, with many in upper management beginning their careers pulling pints.