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Home March 2025 quarter ASX A-REIT market update
April 29, 2025

March 2025 quarter ASX A-REIT market update

Stuart Cartledge, Managing Director, Phoenix Portfolios

 

Market Commentary

The S&P/ASX 300 A-REIT Accumulation Index fell 6.6% over the March quarter under-performing the broader equity market, despite all the geopolitical tensions gripping investors’ minds.

The benchmark is dominated by Industrial heavyweight Goodman Group (GMG), which performed poorly over the quarter, closing down just over 20%. For more on GMG, see the Performance Commentary section of this report. Sticking with the Industrial sub-sector, while a very different investment proposition to GMG, recently listed DigiCo REIT, with its focus on digital infrastructure including data centres was also a very weak performer, down 32.6%. There is little doubt around the demand for ever increasing data centre capacity, but we also expect a significant supply response around the world, and like all things technology related, making long term forecasts is difficult. Anchored by more traditional industrial sheds, both Dexus Industria REIT (DXI) and Centuria Industrial REIT (CIP) posted positive returns of 2.0% and 3.6% respectively. CIP comprises 87 high quality assets, located in core urban infill markets and delivered like-for-like income growth of 6.4% for the first half of the 2025 financial year. The stock is benefitting from striking new leases at material premiums to expiring leases. That premium averaged 50% for the 7% of the portfolio that re-leased during the 6 months to December 2024. CIP closed the quarter at a 25% discount to its underlying book value and is well held in the Fund.

Office property owners saw a rebound from the very weak December quarter, with Dexus (DXS) up 6.3%, Centuria Office REIT up 4.6% and Mirvac Group (MGR), which holds an office-heavy investment portfolio up 11.5%. Other office names were more subdued with Abacus Group (ABG) and Cromwell Property Group both posting less than 1% falls. There is growing chatter, along with some fundamental improvements in office metrics, that the turning point in office markets is close. Depending on your perspective, it seems that owners of quality prime assets such as MGR are in the “flight to quality” camp, while owners of a wider range of office assets point to a “flight to value”. Phoenix has a blend of exposures to the office sector but is predominantly in the young and prime end of the market where cashflows look strongest.

Among the larger style shopping centre owners, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW), which owns Westfield branded centres in the USA, UK and continental Europe rose 10.3%. URW has a December year-end, so the results announced in February were for the full year. Tenant sales were up 4.5% and footfall up 2.6% over the prior year. The company also made a somewhat surprising announcement to retain its exposure to its US assets, having previously indicated a “radical reduction” in that geography. Scentre Group (SCG), owner of the domestic Westfield-branded malls, did less well and posted a small positive return for the quarter. Interestingly, SCG is looking to rezone many of its vacant land sites around its malls, having already received rezoning approval at Westfield Hornsby in Sydney and Westfield Belconnen in Canberra that now provides the opportunity for large scale residential development at both sites. Vicinity Centres (VCX) and Charter Hall Retail REIT produced solid returns over the quarter, up 7.6% and 13.7% respectively.

Property fund managers showed huge variation in outcomes over the quarter. Aside from GMG referred to elsewhere, Qualitas Limited (QAL) which focuses largely on real estate debt products, closed down 12.2%, Centuria Capital closed down 10.4%, while at the other end of the spectrum was Charter Hall Group (CHC) which closed up 12.8%. With asset values stabilising, and strong inflows via the wholesale partnerships channel, CHC upgraded guidance for the full year and now expects to deliver earnings growth of approximately 7%.

Market outlook

The listed property sector is in good shape and provides investors with the opportunity to gain exposure to high quality commercial real estate at a discount to independently assessed values. While share market volatility may be uncomfortable at times, the offset is liquidity, enabling investors to rebalance portfolios without the risk of being trapped in illiquid vehicles.

Rising interest rates have been a headwind for many asset classes, with property, both listed and unlisted, a particularly interest rate sensitive sector. In February, the Reserve Bank of Australia made its first cut to the cash rate target since November 2020, heralding a more buoyant environment for the property sector. The February reporting season also saw stocks providing solid updates, valuation stability and an expectation of liquidity returning to the property transaction market.  Long term valuations are driven by “normalised” interest costs, meaning the impact of short term hedges maturing is mostly immaterial. Should current expectations for further interest rate cuts eventuate, the sector should perform well.

The industrial sub-sector continues to be the most sought after, given the tailwinds of e-commerce growth, the potential onshoring of key manufacturing categories and the decision by many corporates to build some redundancy into supply chains to cope with current disruptions. All of these factors are contributing to ongoing demand for industrial space, which has been evidenced by rapidly accelerating market rents and vacancy rates at historic lows of around 2% in many markets. While rental growth has recently cooled, construction costs remain elevated making additions to supply difficult and thereby prolonging robust conditions.

We remain cognisant of the structural changes occurring in the Retail sector with the growing penetration of online sales and the greater importance of experiential offering inside malls. Recent performance of shopping centre owners has however been strong, with consumers showing resilience and share prices moving higher. It is interesting to note the juxtaposition of very high retail sales figures despite very low levels of consumer confidence, no doubt impacted by rising costs of living. Importantly, we are also now seeing positive re-leasing spreads in shopping centres, indicating strengthening demand from retail tenants.

The jury is still out on exactly how tenants will use office space moving forward, but demand for good quality well located space remains solid and there is growing momentum from companies to get staff back into the office.  Leasing activity is beginning to pick up, and transactional activity is also returning, with discounts to book values materially reduced. Incentives on new leases remain elevated.

We expect to see limited further downside to asset values in office markets but elsewhere expect market rent growth to largely offset cap rate expansion, particularly in industrial assets.  Listed pricing provides a buffer to such movements.

The content above is taken from the Cromwell Phoenix Property Securities Fund quarterly report. Sign up here to be the first to access the latest report and to gain a deeper insight into the Fund’s performance.

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